The Emperor (ROAS) has No Reliability

Last year I wrote “The Seduction of ROAS,” arguing that marketers risk over-relying on performance statistics reported by Google and Meta when allocating their advertising budgets. Algorithmic bias, last-click and misattribution issues, and walled gardens that over-serve ads to past customers can make these platforms look like the undisputed emperor of the media mix. But the presented results often mask much less impressive actual ticket sales, as many destinations experienced in 2025. This misleading analysis is especially problematic when CFOs, Broadway producers, owners, and other decision makers—who cannot stay abreast of marketing trends—lean heavily on those unreliable numbers to decide on budget allocations and strategy. Many venues, shows, and experiences have actually weakened their customer acquisition because they devote too many dollars to performance media that provides a comforting “number,” but not necessarily increased sales.

 

In 2026, organizations that disproportionately invest in digital performance programs risk disappointing ticket sales and lower profit. This is especially concerning for tourist-dependent shows and attractions facing economic headwinds and government policies that feel unfriendly to visitors. At the same time, AI is now broadly accepted as the disruptor in how millions of consumers acquire information. Google’s AI-generated search answers and trip-planning that starts with ChatGPT significantly diminish traffic to destinations’ websites. Meta, often the platform of choice, still offers powerful targeting and video presentation, but it is built to deliver the most likely consumer, not to broadly introduce experiences to new audiences. Taken together, these factors demand a rethink about customer acquisition and connecting with the less obvious visitor.

 

Strategic Approaches for 2026

 

🔴 The Tourist Decision Journey

Tourists seek the experiences that feel ideal for them. Marketers need to communicate their attributes in ways that convince prospective guests that their lives will be enriched. The consumer education process starts with introduction and continues all the way to the moment an individual is ready to take out a credit card. Effective messaging emphasizes your “benefits”—how people will feel after they leave you—and relies on AI to present your features.

 

🔴 Start Now with GEO

Generative Engine Optimization (GEO) requires producing content that AI platforms will present when users ask questions like “What should I do in NYC?” or “I want to go to an observation deck or a Broadway show—which one will most appeal to me?” (The platforms learn about who’s asking.) The descriptive content you produce should clearly express what your experience is, who it is for, and why a prospective visitor should choose you. AI will find all the facts about you; it is up to marketers to supply the story.

 

🔴 Media Mix Matters More Than Ever

AI effectively adds a whole new medium for tourists researching and deciding what to do. This means there is now a sizable group of people who will never see a Google Ads placement, an OTA-type website, or similar resource. Concentrating spending on these diminished platforms directs more of your budget toward a smaller pool of prospects. These formerly reliable platforms cannot grow your customer base as they might have in the past. They will still report strong ROAS—the emperor appears richly robed—but that is largely because their algorithms are reaching the same, pre-established likely buyers, not the newer people you need to grow your sales.

Media diversification that connects with prospective consumers both while they are exploring and at the moment of decision increases the probability of growing your audience. That includes broad top-of-funnel options like TV and targeted, in-market media that specifically describe why they should choose you—for example, in their hotel rooms as they are deciding between options.

 

🔴 Rethink Your Approach Now

This upcoming year will present many tourism marketing challenges. It is worth reexamining past ROAS numbers with a more skeptical eye, factoring in the bias built into the platforms and the diminished reach created by AI. Digital media remains a primary driver of ticket sales for Broadway and attractions. However, if strategies do not adjust for the massive transformation driven by AI and diversify the media mix to compensate for the reduced reach, the risk of poorer outcomes in 2026 increases. Caveat emptor.

David Miller
CEO/Publisher

[email protected]